The Fentanyl Pipeline

Between FY2023 and FY2026, CBP seized 65,123 pounds of fentanyl at U.S. borders — enough for roughly 14.8 billion lethal doses. But the common narrative about drug smuggling and immigration doesn't match the data.

The Inconvenient Truth: Ports of Entry

The political debate around border security often conflates two separate issues: unauthorized migration and drug smuggling. The data shows they follow fundamentally different paths.

97% of fentanyl seizures occur at the southwest border, but the critical detail is where on the southwest border. The majority of hard drug seizures — fentanyl, methamphetamine, and cocaine — happen at official ports of entry, hidden in vehicles, commercial trucks, and cargo shipments passing through CBP inspection at legal crossings.

Meanwhile, the majority of unauthorized border crossings happen between ports of entry — the areas covered by Border Patrol and where physical barriers like walls are built.

This creates a fundamental policy disconnect: border walls primarily affect migration, not drug smuggling. The drugs come through the front door.

The Numbers Tell the Story

Our data reveals two parallel but distinct trends:

• Border encounters peaked at 12.0M (FY2020-2026), with a record 3.1M in FY2023 alone. These are overwhelmingly people — families, asylum seekers, economic migrants — crossing between ports of entry.
• Fentanyl seizures peaked at 27,023 lbs in FY2023, then declined to 21,889 lbs in FY2024 and 12,027 lbs in FY2025. These are primarily at ports of entry, carried by U.S. citizens and legal residents driving vehicles through checkpoints.

The people crossing the border illegally are generally not the people carrying fentanyl. Asylum seekers wading across the Rio Grande don't typically carry $2 million worth of fentanyl. That's a professional smuggling operation using vehicles at legal crossings.

Who Actually Smuggles Fentanyl?

DEA and CBP data consistently show that the majority of fentanyl smugglers caught at ports of entry are U.S. citizens or legal permanent residents. The cartels recruit American drivers because they face less scrutiny at the border.

The smuggling operations are sophisticated: hidden compartments in vehicles, mixed into commercial cargo, concealed in everyday products. A single car can carry millions of lethal doses. This is why the top seizure locations are major ports of entry like Tucson Field Office (30,378 lbs) and San Diego Field Office (23,648 lbs).

The Supply Chain

Illicit fentanyl follows a clear path:

1. Precursor chemicals from China — shipped to Mexico, often through third countries
2. Manufacturing in Mexican labs — primarily Sinaloa Cartel and CJNG operations
3. Smuggling through ports of entry — in vehicles and commercial shipments
4. U.S. distribution networks — often using the postal system for last-mile delivery

The economics are staggering: one kilogram of fentanyl costs $3,000-$5,000 to produce in Mexico and sells for $1-2 million on U.S. streets. This 200-400x markup makes fentanyl the most profitable drug in history and virtually impossible to stop through enforcement alone.

Declining Seizures: Good News or Bad?

Fentanyl seizures dropped from 27,023 lbs in FY2023 to 12,027 lbs in FY2025 — a 55% decline. This could mean:

• Less fentanyl crossing — due to Mexican government precursor crackdowns and cartel disruption
• Better concealment — smugglers adapting to avoid detection
• Shifted routes — moving to mail, air cargo, or through Canada
• Market saturation — enough fentanyl already in the U.S. to meet demand

The honest answer: we don't fully know. Seizure data shows what was caught, not whatcrossed. But the decline, combined with a 20% drop in U.S. overdose deaths from the 2023 peak, suggests at least some real reduction in supply.

Policy Implications

The data suggests that conflating immigration enforcement with drug interdiction leads to ineffective policy. Addressing fentanyl requires:

• Better scanning technology at ports of entry — where the drugs actually cross. Current scanning rates are under 5% of vehicles.
• International cooperation on precursors — cutting off Chinese chemical suppliers
• Demand reduction — treatment and harm reduction programs domestically
• Separating the two issues — immigration policy and drug policy require different tools

Deploying border agents to patrol desert crossings may reduce unauthorized migration, but it does little to stop fentanyl flowing through the port of entry two miles away.