How Your Country of Origin Shapes Your Fate
260 nationalities appear across 9,665,247 immigration court cases. But 10 countries account for the vast majority — and your nationality correlates strongly with your odds.
Top 20 Nationalities
| # | Nationality | Total Cases | Completed | Grants | Grant Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mexico | 2,300,346 | 3,233,129 | 164,750 | 5.1% |
| 2 | Guatemala | 997,241 | 1,389,774 | 45,594 | 3.3% |
| 3 | Honduras | 953,478 | 1,291,858 | 26,961 | 2.1% |
| 4 | El Salvador | 773,165 | 1,275,296 | 61,860 | 4.9% |
| 5 | Venezuela | 620,933 | 476,913 | 18,632 | 3.9% |
| 6 | Cuba | 455,427 | 510,163 | 32,598 | 6.4% |
| 7 | Colombia | 388,565 | 393,143 | 22,673 | 5.8% |
| 8 | Nicaragua | 304,795 | 380,756 | 35,413 | 9.3% |
| 9 | Haiti | 301,646 | 305,392 | 13,811 | 4.5% |
| 10 | Ecuador | 258,834 | 312,542 | 12,458 | 4% |
| 11 | China | 243,388 | 401,635 | 102,683 | 25.6% |
| 12 | Brazil | 202,786 | 249,798 | 7,760 | 3.1% |
| 13 | India | 172,575 | 269,554 | 31,486 | 11.7% |
| 14 | Peru | 148,139 | 168,621 | 10,811 | 6.4% |
| 15 | Dominican Republic | 133,953 | 196,088 | 10,935 | 5.6% |
| 16 | Russia | 88,274 | 96,659 | 20,050 | 20.7% |
| 17 | Jamaica | 61,074 | 101,317 | 9,491 | 9.4% |
| 18 | Nigeria | 39,751 | 60,628 | 8,770 | 14.5% |
| 19 | Pakistan | 38,761 | 64,639 | 9,704 | 15% |
| 20 | Turkey | 37,564 | 55,807 | 3,707 | 6.6% |
The Mexico Dominance
Mexico alone accounts for 2,300,346 cases — 23.8% of all immigration court cases. This reflects decades of proximity-based migration, border enforcement patterns, and the sheer volume of apprehensions along the U.S.-Mexico border.
But Mexico's grant rate tells a different story. Many Mexican respondents are in removal proceedings not for asylum but for unlawful entry or overstay — case types with very low relief rates. The grant rate for Mexican nationals is significantly lower than for countries where asylum claims dominate.
The New Wave: 2021-2025
The composition of immigration court cases shifted dramatically starting in 2021. Traditional sources (Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador) were joined — and in some courts surpassed — by new flows:
- Venezuela (620,933 cases): Economic collapse under Maduro drove massive emigration. Venezuelan cases surged from near-zero pre-2019 to one of the largest nationalities in court.
- Cuba (455,427 cases): The end of "wet foot, dry foot" and economic deterioration created a new wave of Cuban migrants facing removal proceedings for the first time.
- Colombia (388,565 cases): Violence related to FARC dissident groups and economic instability pushed new migration.
- Nicaragua (304,795 cases): Political crackdown under Ortega drove dissidents and ordinary citizens to flee.
Why Grant Rates Differ
The variation in grant rates by nationality isn't arbitrary. Several factors drive it:
Chinese nationals often file political persecution claims with specific, documentable evidence. Central American nationals more often cite gang violence — which courts have historically been reluctant to classify as "persecution" under asylum law, though recent precedents are evolving.
Courts rely on State Department reports and expert testimony about conditions in each country. Well-documented authoritarian regimes (China, Russia, certain African nations) produce stronger documentary evidence than countries where violence is diffuse and non-governmental.
Some nationalities have stronger community networks and better access to lawyers. Chinese communities in NYC, for example, have extensive legal aid infrastructure. Newly-arriving Venezuelans often don't.
Nationalities cluster geographically. Haitians disproportionately appear in Miami and Florida courts. Central Americans in Texas border courts. Where you end up — and therefore which judges hear your case — correlates strongly with your nationality.
The Language Connection
Nationality correlates with language, and language affects outcomes. Spanish speakers (7,152,953 cases) benefit from a large interpreter pool — courts can almost always find a Spanish interpreter. But speakers of indigenous Central American languages face severe barriers:
- Mam: 19,252 cases — a Mayan language from Guatemala. Finding qualified interpreters is extremely difficult.
- K'iche' (Quiche): 14,235 cases — another Mayan language. Court proceedings may use a chain interpretation: K'iche' → Spanish → English.
- Konjobal: 11,972 cases — often confused with other Mayan languages, leading to wrong interpreters.
The Fundamental Question
If the legal standard for asylum is the same for everyone — a well-founded fear of persecution based on race, religion, nationality, political opinion, or membership in a particular social group — why do outcomes vary so dramatically by nationality? The data suggests that nationality acts as a proxy for a bundle of structural factors: case type, evidence quality, attorney access, court assignment, and language barriers. Your passport doesn't determine your legal rights — but it profoundly shapes your practical odds.
🌍 All 260 Nationalities
Browse and search case data for every country.
📍 Geographic Lottery
How court location compounds nationality disparities.
👔 Representation Gap
Community networks determine attorney access.