The Geographic Lottery
88 immigration courts across the country apply the same law — but produce wildly different outcomes. The highest grant rate court approves relief at 21%. The lowest at 0.8%. Where your case is heard may matter more than anything else.
The Extremes
An asylum seeker whose case lands in New York has a 21% chance of winning relief. The same person, same facts, same law — but in Houston, TX — faces a 0.8% chance. That's a 26x difference based entirely on geography.
To be clear: this isn't comparing different legal systems. All 88 courts operate under the same Immigration and Nationality Act, the same BIA precedent decisions, and the same Circuit Court oversight (though circuits vary). The law is identical. The outcomes are not.
Highest Grant Rate Courts
| Court | Total Cases | Completed | Grant Rate | Grants |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York, NY | 634,768 | 805,653 | 21% | 169,468 |
| San Francisco, CA | 359,734 | 465,805 | 20.5% | 95,564 |
| Honolulu, HI | 13,617 | 19,618 | 19.4% | 3,809 |
| Sacramento, CA | 49,891 | 41,296 | 19.3% | 7,958 |
| Hagatna, GU | 3,690 | 5,285 | 16.7% | 880 |
| Baltimore, MD | 142,076 | 196,727 | 13.4% | 26,324 |
| Boston, MA | 225,176 | 264,254 | 12.7% | 33,662 |
| Los Angeles, CA | 467,204 | 770,907 | 12.3% | 94,952 |
| Annandale, VA | 149,946 | 253,242 | 11% | 27,823 |
| Hyattsville, MD | 64,682 | 68,584 | 10.6% | 7,244 |
Lowest Grant Rate Courts
| Court | Total Cases | Completed | Grant Rate | Removals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston, TX | 90,844 | 113,861 | 0.8% | 2,650 |
| Lumpkin, GA | 89,384 | 135,797 | 0.9% | 26 |
| Houston, TX | 93,047 | 115,946 | 1.1% | 12 |
| El Paso, TX | 125,297 | 187,301 | 1.2% | 31,425 |
| Atlanta, GA | 32,558 | 55,694 | 1.3% | 1,429 |
| Harlingen, TX | 168,440 | 375,074 | 1.4% | 19,773 |
| Florence, AZ | 88,451 | 163,085 | 1.4% | 24,117 |
| Los Fresnos, TX | 95,003 | 201,699 | 1.5% | 26,111 |
| Laredo, TX | 70,658 | 103,893 | 1.5% | 13,414 |
| Pearsall, TX | 88,005 | 201,682 | 1.6% | 6 |
The Busiest Courts
Volume doesn't correlate with generosity. The courts processing the most cases:
| Court | Total Cases | Grant Rate |
|---|---|---|
| Miami, FL | 682,877 | 10.1% |
| New York, NY | 634,768 | 21% |
| Los Angeles, CA | 467,204 | 12.3% |
| Chicago, IL | 363,725 | 8.1% |
| San Francisco, CA | 359,734 | 20.5% |
| Dallas, TX | 350,413 | 3.5% |
| Orlando, FL | 334,095 | 6.1% |
| San Antonio, TX | 286,310 | 2.3% |
| Newark, NJ | 279,222 | 7.6% |
| Atlanta, GA | 247,620 | 2.1% |
The Texas vs. New York Divide
The starkest geographic divide runs between Texas and New York. Texas courts handle 1,792,470 cases across 14 courts — predominantly border enforcement cases with very low grant rates. New York courts handle 945,220 cases across 7 courts with significantly higher grant rates.
This isn't just about judges. It's about entire legal ecosystems:
🏛️ Texas Courts
- → 1,792,470 cases across 14 courts
- → Heavy border enforcement docket
- → Many detained respondents
- → Fewer pro bono attorneys
- → 5th Circuit (restrictive asylum precedent)
- → High in absentia and VD rates
🏛️ New York Courts
- → 945,220 cases across 7 courts
- → More affirmative asylum cases
- → Mostly non-detained docket
- → Dense pro bono legal network
- → 2nd Circuit (broader asylum protections)
- → Higher representation rates
Why This Happens
- Federal Circuit Courts matter: Immigration judges are bound by their Circuit's precedent. The 9th Circuit (West Coast) and 2nd Circuit (New York) have broader asylum protections. The 5th Circuit (Texas, Louisiana) is far more restrictive. Same law, different interpretation.
- Judge pools differ: Each court's judges were hired during different administrations with different enforcement priorities. A court staffed during an enforcement-focused era will produce different outcomes than one staffed during a humanitarian-focused era.
- Case composition varies: Border courts see more expedited removal and in absentia cases. Interior courts see more affirmative asylum applications with established claims and evidence.
- Attorney availability: The representation gap maps directly onto geography. NYC has hundreds of immigration attorneys per court. Rural Texas courts have almost none.
- Local legal culture: Judges in the same courthouse develop shared norms over time. If the senior judge sets a restrictive tone, newer judges often follow. This creates self-reinforcing patterns within courts.
Can You Choose Your Court?
Generally, no. Your court is determined by where you live (for non-detained cases) or where you're detained (for detained cases). Change of venue requests are possible but rarely granted.
This means that where ICE chooses to detain someone — and where someone happens to live — has an enormous impact on their case outcome. A Venezuelan asylum seeker in Houston faces a fundamentally different system than the same person in New York, despite identical legal rights.
The Compound Effect
Geography doesn't just determine your court — it determines your judge (variation article), your access to an attorney (representation gap), and the federal circuit precedent that governs your case. These factors compound: a respondent in a low-grant court, with a low-grant judge, no attorney, in a restrictive circuit faces systematically different odds than someone in a high-grant court with a lawyer in a more expansive circuit. Same country. Same law. Radically different justice.